Ten NFL coaches could be gone with Black Monday — or sooner

Black Monday is a macabre tradition in the National Football League.  This is the day following the close of the regular season when firings of head coaches are revealed.

The tradition is changing a bit, with teams in recent years jumping the gun and pulling the trigger before the season is done.  The New York Giants fired Ben McAdoo with four games left in this season and promoted defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to the post of interim head coach.

In losing his first three games, Spagnuolo has done nothing to support his cause in changing the interim status to permanent, not that anything, with the possible exception of Bill Belichick, is permanent in the NFL.

Here are the head coaches ranked in order of those most likely to be unemployed within a week:

1. John Fox, Chicago.  He’s already told associates he expects to be gone.  His defining moment came Nov. 12 against Green Bay, when he threw a challenge flag when the ball was spotted on the half-hard line after Fox thought it should be a Bears TD.  Upon review, the play was ruled a fumble out of the end zone, resulting in Chicago losing possession.  He’s also taken heat for not giving rookie Mitch Trubisky more opportunities to throw the ball downfield.
2. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati.  No. 1 on this list prior to Sunday, when his team scored a stunning upset of Detroit to stop the Lions’ playoff bid.  Was that enough to save Lewis, who has coached the Bengals for 15 years?  Probably not.  If Fox has a 99% chance of termination, Lewis is 98%.  He’s usually had competitive teams (12 games above .500) but is 0-7 in postseason.   His most glaring flaw is failure to instill discipline; his players commit egregious penalties at the worst possible times, and Lewis excuses them.  There are published reports that the Bengals want to hire Jay Gruden away from Washington.
3. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis.  This is his first losing season in five as Colts head coach, and he’s 3-3 in postseason.  It’s not his fault he lost his quarterback, Andrew Luck, before this season began, and his roster was poorly stocked by general manager Ryan Grigson before his termination last year (soon to be hired by, wouldn’t you guess, the Cleveland Browns).  But it’s difficult to market a 2-13 team without making a coaching change.  Pagano is well liked by players and is an inspiration as a leukemia survivor.  Perhaps a resounding victory Sunday over an equally miserable Houston team would give him hope of another chance.  But it’s slim.
4. Hue Jackson, Cleveland.  If 2-13 has Pagano on a hot seat, imagine the fire suit Jackson needs with a two-year record of 1-30.   The worst mistake he made was trusting the quarterbacking to 20-year-old rookie DeShone Kizer, who clearly is not close to ready.  Cody Kessler, Kevin Hogan and even Brock Osweiler would have been better options.  The team hired a new and highly respected general manager, John Dorsey, who has been guarded in speculating on Jackson’s future.  The Browns had a winnable game Sunday in Chicago, but the 20-3 collapse probably doomed Jackson if he wasn’t already gone.
5. Vance Joseph, Denver.  This is likely to be a rare one-and-done scenario.  Sunday’s 27-11 loss to Washington was Joseph’s eighth double-digit defeat of the season, and it was capped by a devastating complaint by QB Brock Osweiler: “It takes a play-caller to put players in position to have success.”  There also have been complaints by defensive stars such as Von Miller that the team’s offense is such a mess that it precludes the hugely overworked defense from doing its job.  Joseph is 45 and didn’t have a lot of success in his previous job, coaching the defense of the Miami Dolphins.  The phrase most often used about him: “in over his head.”
6. Jim Caldwell, Detroit.  He seemed safe until Sunday’s no-show in Cincinnati.  Getting outcoached by Marvin Lewis is no way to protect your job.  Caldwell is 35-28, which is better than most of his Lions predecessors have done.  But he hasn’t won a playoff game in four years, and local media are incensed over his play-calling (runs on 1^st-and-15 and 2^nd-and-18), wrong decisions on challenges and persistently producing the most inept running game in the NFL.  In the past two years GM Bob Quinn rebuilt the offensive line with pricy free agents T.J. Lang and Rick Wagner supplementing first-round and third-round draft picks -– all to no avail.
7. Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay.  He’s had only two seasons as coach of the Buccaneers, but this year’s 4-11 is not easy for ownership to swallow, especially with former Super Bowl winner Jon Gruden subtly campaigning for a second run in Tampa.  Gruden, currently starring on Monday Night Football, has been contacting his previous assistants to see what sort of staff he can put together, in Tampa or elsewhere.  What may save Koetter is his improving rapport with franchise QB Jameis Winston, who played perhaps the best game of his pro career in a loss at Carolina last week.  It’s about 50-50 on Koetter surviving another year.
8. Jack Del Rio, Oakland.  This team has too much talent to be 6-9:  Derek Carr, Marshawn Lynch, Khalil Mack, Kaleche Osemele, Rodney Hudson, Bruce Irvin.  Del Rio may survive by firing offensive coordinator Todd Downing.  He did help his cause last month when he replaced defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. with John Pagano, producing a spark in the defense, which played well in Monday night’s 9-point defeat in Philadelphia that was close until the final seconds.
9. Mike Mularkey, Tennessee.  Like Del Rio, Mularkey has better than a 50-50 chance of surviving Black Monday.  But like Del Rio, he doesn’t have the sort of splashy resume to buy much more time, and he must make changes in his staff.  Offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie probably will have to go after public complaints by QB Marcus Mariota and his favorite receiver, Rishard Matthews.  The players want more up-tempo, less smash-mouth.  Like Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton and Trevor Siemian, Mariota has suffered major regression this year, and someone will be held accountable.
10. Bill O’Brien, Houston.  Easy to make the case that he did well to achieve three straight 9-7 seasons with starting quarterbacks named Fitzpatrick, Mallett, Hoyer and Osweiler.  It’s likely OB would have done at least that well in 2017 if not for the departure in October of the one good QB he’s ever had, Deshaun Watson, who has expressed admiration of the head coach.  But the main problem here, aside from this year’s horrid 4-11, is the rift between the coach and mediocre general manager Rick Smith.  O’Brien’s popularity with his players is not equaled by his popularity with media, who carp on his refusal or inability to hire a skilled offensive coordinator.  By himself, O’Brien is not good at managing the clock and making decisions in the red zone.  He has about a 60% shot of returning, but issues must be resolved.