Mark Roberson’s Bold Predictions: Darnold wins Heisman, Michigan, West Virginia flop
1. Kevin Sumlin will be fired as head coach of the Texas A&M Aggies
After winning 6 straight games last season, A&M moved into the top 10 before losing 5 of its last 7. It’s the same story for the last three Aggie campaigns. And once again they will be one of the worst teams in a loaded SEC West. With a $5 million-a-year contract at a premier SEC program, Sumlin is not returning the investment in his abilities to lead the school to national prowess. His is the hottest seat in the country. Road games at UCLA, Florida, Ole Miss and LSU all but guarantee he will be out at the end of this year after failing to do better than his run of 8-5s of the past three years.
2. Sam Darnold, Southern California QB, will win the Heisman Trophy
This award is about the numbers, team wins, and media coverage and support. This young man should have all three in the bag. Sam Darnold is the darling of college football this season, and most writers around the country are rooting for USC to re-emerge as a national powerhouse. Darnold has plenty of firepower to lead his offense to a Pac-12 title and improve upon last year’s stats.
He’s helped by a friendly schedule that is absent Oregon and Washington, and features home games against USC’s toughest rated opponents in Stanford, Texas and Utah.
3. The Big 12 will miss the College Football Playoff again . . . and so will the ACC
Oklahoma’s schedule is too tough this season, with games at Ohio State and Oklahoma State, and the Big 12 champion has to be undefeated to warrant a bid.
The conference is too weak and could soon fall apart It will have to wait at least another year for a Playoff contender to emerge.
The ACC will have much greater parity this season with the loss of Clemson star Deshaun Watson to the NFL. Florida State is poised to take control, but look out for Miami and ACC dark horse Virginia Tech lurking in the shadows. And why has everyone forgotten about Louisville’s Heisman Trophy quarterback Lamar Jackson? He’s still around too.
4. Michigan will underwhelm, finish outside the top-20
With only one returning starter this season on defense, the Wolverines will be a weaker team than we saw in 2016. Michigan was ranked first in total defense and 57th in total offense, creating an imbalance not easy to overcome. The schedule does them no favors. The Wolverines play Florida to begin the year along with three Big 10 opponents ranked in the top-10 in the nation (Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State).
5. Texas joins Oklahoma and OSU as Big 12 teams finishing in the top-10
None of the Big 12 are Playoff-caliber, but Oklahoma and Oklahoma State boast the strongest offenses in the league, driven by accomplished senior quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. The Bedlam game will determine this year’s Big 12 champion, but there may be a third team that works its way into the mix: Tom Herman’s Texas Longhorns.
Look for comparisons to Mack Brown’s first season with the Longhorns in 1998. Following a 4-7 in the final year of John Mackovic as head coach, Brown turned the team around his first year. Texas was 9-3 and beat Mississippi State in the Cotton Bowl.
I see a similar year for Herman, who will develop QB Shane Buechele to his potential and will bring discipline to the defense.
6. Saban leads Alabama to another title, winning his sixth NCAA Championship
OK, not very bold. But you can’t call yourself a college prognosticator and not pick a national champion.
And if you’re sensible, you can’t roll against the Tide. Alabama may have the softest schedule in the SEC, with only an away game at Auburn threatening perfection.
The loaded-as-ever Tide opens with a non-conference matchup against an equally athletic Florida State, but Alabama is always the NCAA’s most prepared team to start each season. The key here is that Saban and his Tide won’t see Florida, or possibly Georgia, until the SEC championship game. Jalen Hurts will be much improved, and the defense deeply talented as always. Little stands in the way of another title for the legendary coach.
7. Ohio State will again make the CFP, but win the Big 10 this time around
Ohio State has eight returning starters on offense, and by far the best is senior QB J.T. Barrett. Make no mistake, he is the key piece for the Buckeyes and also seeks to boost his NFL draft stock. A 3,000 yard passing and 1,000 yard rushing season is not out of the question here. A defense that ranked fourth nationally will be a force yet again.
I like Ohio State to beat both Penn State (home) and Michigan (away). The Buckeyes do not have Wisconsin, another top-10 foe, on the schedule this season.
8. Most overrated team in the country: West Virginia Mountaineers (#20, preseason Coaches Poll)
This hype train has pulled away from the station, and will soon run off the tracks. This is a team that ranked 77th in the country in total defense last season and returns only three defensive starters.
This team will not keep up in the most offensive minded conference in college football. While Florida transfer Will Grier should thrive in Dana Holgorsen’s system, it won’t be enough to save the Mountaineers from a losing season.
9. USC runs the table, only to crash and burn in the first round of the CFP
This team is loaded with talent, but none is more apparent than that of sophomore quarterback Sam Darnold (see bold prediction #2). The Trojans may be on to something here. After losing three of its first four games last season, USC won an impressive nine games in a row to end the season, including a dramatic Rose Bowl victory over Penn State. This team is eager to win and has one of the most favorable schedules among the preseason top-10. The problem I see is the experience. I am forecasting a likely matchup against Ohio State or Alabama, two playoff veterans. While I believe in young Sam’s talent, he lacks the experience on college football’s biggest stage. Look past the regular season heroics and you’ll see that this team will not win against a veteran SEC or Big 10 powerhouse in the playoff.
10. The toughest division in college football will be the SEC West
Alabama is the best team in the country, but in one of the toughest divisions in all of college football. LSU and Auburn are both ranked inside the top-15. Arkansas and Mississippi State make a compelling case to threaten the division leaders with serious talent of their own, namely Nick Fitzgerald, Dan Mullen’s latest phenom under center, destined for the NFL. And if Sumlin can somehow spark the Aggies’ confidence, A&M could be a tough opponent as well, with three top-15 recruiting classes in the last four seasons.