Beckett Frappier: When the Madness is over, Villanova will have the last dance
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Beckett Frappier
March Madness, the best time of the year for even the most marginal of basketball fans, is back. Like the last couple of years, there’s no clear favorite. You have traditional powerhouses like Duke, Michigan State, and North Carolina built with top recruits, and top-notch coaching, but you’ve also got team-oriented powerhouses such as Villanova, Gonzaga, Xavier, among others.
There could be a Cinderella like Butler or George Mason in years past. Could this year’s Cinderella be Steph Curry’s alma mater, Davidson College?
This is the greatest few weeks in sports because no team is safe. In order to come out as the Champions in early April, a team has to be perfect for 6 games.
South
The South is a very interesting portion of the brackets, with multiple big-name programs, as well as solid mid-majors.
Virginia, the No. 1 seed, had its best season since the slender tower Ralph Sampson was on campus. We can ignore UMBC playing against UVA. The Retrievers should consider themselves lucky if they score over 40 points.
The only problem with the Cavaliers is that they average only 67 points themselves. And that’s when they have the ACC’s Sixth Man of the Year, DeAndre Hunter, and they don’t have him now. He averaged 9.2 ppg, but fractured his left wrist in the conference tournament and will miss all of the NCAA’s.
Cincinnati, the No. 2 seed, is built like Virginia, with a stout defense (albeit against inferior competition in the AAC), but offensively challenged. This is a team that will be on upset alert, maybe not in the first round, then early on in the tournament.
Arizona is the 4-seed and is on fire after a slow start. The Wildcats, the #3 ranked team to begin the season, dropped out of the rankings altogether by Week 4.
Thanks to the emergence of freshman Deandre Ayton (20 ppg, 12 rpg), who ESPN’s Jay Bilas and many others consider the best player in the country, Arizona has a legitimate chance at a long run in this year’s tournament.
Kentucky, coming off its 31st SEC tournament title, enters the NCAA’s on a hot streak as well, after disappointing for most of the season. However, these Wildcats open against an equally hot team in 12-seed Davidson that has four shooters on the court at all times. Kellan Grady, a freshman guard, is shooting 38% from three, and is averaging 18 ppg. As a team, Davidson shoots nearly 40% from three-point range.
Kentucky is on upset alert in this game. A slow start offensively or uninspired defense could make a long night for John Calipari, Coach One and Done.
Besides Kentucky, I don’t see a game that could provide an upset in the first round. Loyola-Chicago is a team many people are picking as a mid-major that can make a run, but in the first round the Ramblers face a Miami team that beat UNC just a few weeks ago, and is battle tested/well prepared thanks to the gauntlet the Hurricanes faced all season in the ACC.
Even though Virginia is a great team this year, Arizona is poised to make a big run. Unless someone comes up with an answer for Ayton and Allonzo Trier, I think Arizona will be very tough to beat.
West
Xavier may have the most difficult path of all of the number ones. The Musketeers play the winner of the 16-seed play in game. It won’t matter who they play, this will be a blowout. Xavier is led by two seniors in Trevon Bluiett, who is averaging nearly 20 ppg including 42% on threes, and J.P. Macura, who is averaging 12 ppg. For Xavier to make a deep run, these two need to play well.
Xavier will play the winner of Missouri vs Florida State, which could be a tough game for the Big East regular-season champs. Missouri recently got back Michael Porter, Jr., who will be a Top 10 pick in the NBA draft. If he had played the entire season, the Tigers might have been a much higher seed. FSU is always good defensively, and the Seminoles’ size could cause problems for the Musketeers.
North Carolina is, in my opinion, the team to beat in the West. The Tar Heels boast 5 double digit scorers, with Luke Maye and Joel Berry II both averaging over 17 ppg. The 2-seed is the defending national champ and was a missed Kris Jenkins buzzer-beater away from overtime in the 2016 Championship.
Berry and Maye were on both of those teams, making this the most experienced team in the country. It also helps that the Heels have been playing high-intensity games all season in the ACC.
The 4-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs, runners up a year ago, have yet another strong team under Coach Mark Few. Despite losing Karnowski down low, the WCC champs replaced him with another solid big man in Killian Tillie, who is averaging 13 ppg and 6 rpg.
Gonzaga was largely written off after a blowout loss to Villanova at MSG. Though not as talented as in years past, this team can make a run in the tourney.
Michigan is one of the hottest teams in the country, coming off a championship in the Big Ten Tournament. However, the Big Ten was the weakest power 5 conference, and the Wolverines don’t have a star scorer; they have a lot of players who are streaky. They could fizzle out early in the tournament.
Look for UNC to make it to the Final Four for the third year in a row, led by Joel Berry and Theo Pinson, who came on strong at the end of the year.
Midwest
This is the most top-heavy portion of the brackets. Duke and Kansas are high seeds, per usual, as is Michigan State.
The Jayhawks won both the Big 12 regular season and tournament championships. Kansas is led by Big 12 Player of the Year Devonte Graham, yet another speedy, sharpshooting guard to play for the Jayhawks. Graham is averaging 17 ppg.
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk — say that five times fast — is scoring 15 ppg with a ridiculous 45% from 3- point range (he’s better at 3’s than 2’s). He has one of the prettiest jump shots I’ve every seen. KU should easily reach the Sweet Sixteen yet again.
Duke has one of the most talented teams in the nation, led by freshman Marvin Bagley III, averaging 21 ppg and 12 rpg. To stop Duke, you must stop Bagley. He and Wendell Carter Jr thrive in the paint, where they shoot 56% and 61% respectively. Duke is not so reliable outside, where Grayson Allen, for all his hype, is shooting 42%. I think this is one of those years when the Blue Devils slip up early on.
Michigan State has a similar pattern as Duke, bowing out early or making a long run in the tournament. Miles Bridges could have gone in the lottery in 2017, but decided to come back to school as a sophomore to chase a National Championship. He is averaging 16.9 ppg, 7 rpg, and 3 apg.
However, NBA scouts are now faulting his consistency. If Bridges is playing well, and shooting a high percentage, MSU is likely to win. If he shoots poorly, this could be an early exit year for the Spartans.
Besides these three juggernauts, there’s also a very controversial squad in the Midwest: Oklahoma. The Sooners, in many fans’ opinions, should not be in the tournament. If they get past Rhode Island, Duke awaits them in the second round. That’s where the Sooners and leading scorer/possible lottery pick Trae Young’s season will end, unless Duke employs the same zone against OU that was used against UNC in the ACC tournament. I don’t think Coach K will do that.
Kansas is my pick to win the Midwest.
East
The East is the deepest regional. The first-round games could be close, though Villanova will keep the winning streak going for 1-seeds versus 16-seeds when taking on Radford.
Villanova, despite being labeled as a team with no depth, has 6 players averaging over 10 points per game, led by Jalen Brunson at 19 ppg, and Mikal Bridges’ 18 ppg. Villanova shoots 40% from 3-point range and 50% overall.
As a Villanova grad I’m biased, but I think this team is poised for another deep run just as in 2016. The Wildcats are put together much like that team, with solid guard play, great defense, and accurate 3-point shooting from all positions.
Freshman Omari Spellman is a star in the making and adds a dimension that Daniel Ochefu did not possess in 2016, which is the ability to stretch the floor.
Virginia Tech versus Alabama features yet another ACC team against an Alabama team that has one of the nation’s best players in freshman Collin Sexton, averaging 19 ppg. Virginia Tech, which is a much deeper, well rounded team, could pose the biggest threat to Villanova on the opening weekend. Three of its top four scorers shoot over 40 % from the 3-point arc, which Nova had trouble defending at times this year.
West Virginia’s high-octane press is fun to watch, and will cause problems for Murray State in the first round and either Wichita State or Marshall in the second round. The key is for the Mountaineers to get their offense going, since we know this team will force turnovers.
Texas Tech is my pick to be upset in the first round in the East. The Red Raiders face 14th seeded Stephen F. Austin, which has had success recently in the NCAA tournament. Tech’s Keenan Evans is a solid player at 18 ppg, but there’s a huge drop-off after him, with the next closest at 11.7 ppg. If a team can shut down Evans, it can upset the surprising 3-seed that nearly won the Big 12 title.
Final Four
Villanova
Arizona
Kansas
UNC
National Championship
Villanova vs North Carolina
Champion: Villanova
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