Alan Truex: Hofburg can trip up Justify in the third leg of the Triple Crown
Justify has won all five of his races, but his trainer, Bob Baffert, knows how he can lose. The strapping chestnut colt becomes complacent when he’s in front. And that creates a possibility of being overtaken at the wire.
That almost happened in the Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of the Triple Crown. As the finish line loomed for the 1 3/16-mile race in Baltimore, Justify was finishing early. A couple of long-shots, Bravazo and Tenfold, closed to within three-fourths of a length of the winner.
Justify’s jockey, Mike Smith, said his horse relaxed but then responded when asked. “When Bravazo made that big run at him galloping out, he jumped back into the bridle and said, ‘Are we over? Or do I keep going?’ It was up to me to tell him what to do, and he was eager to do it.”
Baffert saw the problem: “He’s a little green. He needs someone to carry him. When he made the lead (in the Preakness), he coasted.”
So in this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes (5:30 CST, NBC), Baffert is making sure Justify has a target in front of him.
In the Preakness, Good Magic’s trainer, Chad Brown, wanted to stalk Justify, but gently. Let him become overconfident with a one-length lead. Then sneak by him in the stretch. Brown was furious with Jose Ortiz for challenging Justify out of the gate and keeping him on edge.
Good Magic is not in the Belmont, which at 1½ miles is too much for his DNA. Baffert was hoping for another entrant who likes to run early, but not too fast.
Noble Indy and Bravazo have shown they like to be close to the pace. But of course Baffert cannot expect them to do what he wants, even though Noble Indy and Justify have a common owner, WinStar Farm. Baffert still wanted to go to his own stable for Restoring Hope, who finished third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial.
Restoring Hope, owned by Gary and Mary West, who also own Grade 1 winner West Coast, is more a stalker than front-runner. But Baffert is telling his jockey, the very capable Florent Geroux, to sweep in front of Justify and set a moderate pace. Baffert is not hiding his conspiratorial intentions. “I brought my own rabbit,” he said upon arriving in New York.
With 10 entrants, this is a larger than usual Belmont field. It’s apparent the people who invest in this marginally popular sport think Justify is very beatable in the $1.5 million race.
He did look tired at the end of the Preakness. Baffert later revealed his colt was running on a sore hind foot. The analytics revealed he was not running as fast in the Preakness as in his other four races.
Baffert gets three weeks to freshen his horse for the Belmont, and by all accounts he’s made good use of the time. The most acclaimed trainer of his generation has had enough time to heal a fairly minor inflammation.
Even so, Justify’s workout routine has been disrupted by the foot condition known as “run-down.” He may lack the foundation needed in the Test of Champions.
In more than a decade of covering Triple Crown racing for newspapers, I don’t recall a winner who had any mishaps in the previous 3-4 weeks. And keep in mind that Justify already has done what no horse in 137 years could do: win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old. With his late start (caused by a pulled hindquarter muscle), Justify’s 3-year-old campaign was compressed: 5 races in four months.
Only one other Belmont starter has raced as often this year as Justify: Bravazo, who appeared to finish the Preakness with more energy than the winner. The 82-year-old Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas has him on a steady uptrend, from 8th in the Louisiana Derby to 6th in the Kentucky Derby to 2nd in the Preakness.
But I think Bravazo is more likely to regress, along with Justify, for the same reason: they’re overextended. Expect them to lose to a horse specifically conditioned for this one race. When American Pharoah won the Triple Crown for Baffert in 2015, he broke a string of 12 Belmont/Preakness winners being stopped in the Belmont. It’s not fair to ask a 3-year-old horse to win three long races in a 5-week period to become the 13th Triple Crown winner.
Still it’s not surprising that the morning line has Justify as the 4-5 favorite starting from the No. 1 post. That’s a good post for this race. It’s produced the most winners, 23 in 149 runnings. Still, there’s danger of getting pinned on the rail or bogging down if it’s dead, as the inside of the track tends to be when it rains, and another Triple Crown rainstorm is forecasted.
I’m more interested in the second fave, Hofburg at 9/2 starting from the comfortable 4 post. He finished second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby in just his third lifetime start. His Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont with Drosselmeyer.
Hofburg ran a gritty 7th in the Derby, passing horses in the stretch in a mud-storm. He skipped the Preakness, is working well in New York, and no one is better bred for this event.
He has Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy on both sides of his pedigree. His sire, Tapit, has progeny that have won three Belmonts, including the most recent, with Tapwrit. And Hofburg’s dam, Soothing Touch, is the daughter of 1997 Belmont winner Touch Gold.
With rising star Irad Ortiz riding, Hofburg is peaking at the right time. I’m not as sure about Vino Rosso, who, more importantly, is trusted by jockey John Velazquez, who gets first pick of the ample Todd Pletcher barn and has twice won the Belmont. Vino was empty in the Derby but had mud as an excuse. His 98 Beyer in the Wood was better than Justify’s 97 in the Preakness.
Vino Rosso (8-1 morning line) is a son of Belmont runner-up Curlin, who sired Belmont winner Palace Malice. Pletcher won the race last year with Tapwrit and will have Vino finishing strong if a hot pace develops. The 8th post does him no favors but is not critical in a race as long as this.
Pletcher may turn loose his own rabbit, Noble Indy (30-1), who was never more than a length from the lead in winning the Louisiana Derby. He may heat up the pace for stretch-running Vino Rosso. But the grandson of A.P. Indy is a versatile runner and has the most versatile of jockeys in Javier Castellano. It’s not out of the question he could shock.
Steve Asmussen’s Tenfold (12-1) is splendidly bred: sired by Curlin, out of a daughter of Tapit. Tenfold showed promise with his fifth in the Arkansas Derby, and his show in the Preakness suggests a forward move continues.
But I’m not sure Ricardo Santana Jr. is up to this challenge. He’s won riding titles at Oaklawn and Keeneland, which is off-off-Broadway. I don’t see him outmaneuvering Castellano, Smith, Velazquez and Ortiz on a track as uniquely daunting as The Big Sandy over such extended distance.
Off the morning line I think the best play is Hofburg. If the track is fast – but only then – I would go long with Vino Rosso and Noble Indy. I wish I could predict another win for Justify, whom I backed in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. But the real odds should be 2/1 against him achieving what only one horse has done in 40 years: the Triple Crown.