Alan Truex: Fortunes change as Keuchel rediscovers a pitch

HOUSTON – It’s one thing to become world champion, another to hold the crown.  A month ago the Astros appeared to be losing theirs.  Seattle was two games up on them in the AL West.  The Mariners beat a Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel, at MinuteMaid, tilting his season log to 3-8 and shooting his ERA to 4.45.  But the starting rotation was the least of Houston’s problems.  Main issue was the bullpen.

Ken Giles was punching batters out often enough, but when he punched himself in the face, on his way to the showers, he lost all credibility as a closer.  This is a job that requires, above all, composure.  You can’t beat up on yourself, figuratively or literally.

Besides Giles, with his unsettling mix of heat, gasoline and $4.6 million salary, A.J. Hinch had to worry about left-handed bats in any opposing lineup.   Keuchel is his best lefty pitcher, and he was hanging his slider like an Italian suit.

The Astros’ manager had only one left-handed reliever, Tony Sipp, past his peak at 34.  He wasn’t all that good at his peak.

Word was that general manager Jeff Luhnow was looking at the July 31 trade deadline as the time to pry Zach Britton from the hard-selling Baltimore Orioles.  Talk about killing two birds (or is it more?) with one stone.  Britton is in southpaw prime at 30, has 138 saves in four years for the low-flying Orioles.

But now Luhnow is not so sure he wants Britton.  In 12 appearances since his return from Achilles surgery, Britton has a 4.63 ERA.  And his salary of $11 million makes Giles look like a bargain.

Fortunately for the Astros, the bullpen issue has become almost moot.   Houston is 24-7 since June 6, with Hector Rondon as de facto closer.   He’s saved 7 games in 8 attempts, allowing one run in 9 innings.

The Astros have shaken off the Mariners, who trail Houston by 3 games entering Tuesday night.

Even more surprising, Sipp has matured into the prototype crafty-lefty.  He’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA for his 24 appearances.  Left-handed batters are under .150 against him.

Although Sipp is their only lefty relief, Chris Devenski’s Circle of Death changeup is deadlier against the left than the right.   Devo is one of the game’s finest setup men, 2-1, with 16 holds, 1.78 ERA.

Looking at the team splits, there’s little difference between opponents batting right and those batting left.  Nobody lefthanded or righthanded is hitting Collin McHugh’s curveball.  The middle reliever has held the batters to 22 hits in 42 innings.  His earned-run average is 0.86.

Even more encouraging: Keuchel is back to being the old Keuchel instead of the old Tony Sipp.  In his past five starts he’s 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA.  He’s regained the late dip on his slider and is frustrating batters by re-introducing a changeup.  He threw 26 changeups Sunday and had 16 groundouts against the White Sox.

“It’s something I’ve been focusing on,” Keuchel said, “getting guys off the fastball.  It makes guys wonder, ‘Is it a fastball or a changeup?’ on the outer half.”

The rest of the rotation is first-rate: All-Stars Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are a combined 18-6, and there’s little if any dropoff to Charlie Morton (11-2) and Lance McCullers (10-3).

As solid as their pitching is, the Astros are not winning by the margins they did last year.   Six of their past 10 wins were by one run.   Good in the clutch, but perhaps lucky.

Last year the Astros had a Murderers Row that brought comparison to the Yankees of the 1920s and ‘30s.  The 2017 Astros hit .282 as a team, with an OPS of .823.  This year the numbers are .263 and .772.

Center fielder George Springer, postseason hero of 2017, is batting .251.  As I’m writing this he hasn’t hit a home run in three weeks.

My guess is he finds his groove before the September stretch run, but the Astros have offensive issues elsewhere, most noticeably at catcher and left field.  This would be no problem if Evan Gattis were in shape and interested in playing defense at either position.  But he’s 6-4, 270 pounds, and he was born to DH.  Which, granted, he does quite well: 18 homers, .820 OPS.

With Jake Marisnick back to the farm to develop his hitting, the Astros called up their top prospect, Kyle Tucker.  At 21 he’s the youngest player in the American League.  He’s begun his big-league career 1-for-10, but he has  three more weeks to convince Luhnow not to part with other prospects for a veteran left fielder.

As for catchers, Brian McCann is No. 1, but he’s out for at least a month recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery.

Max Stassi is a solid No. 2 catcher (BA .258, OPS .818), but Luhnow is negotiating to rent Tampa’s Wilson Ramos, who will start in next Tuesday’s All-Star game in the nation’s capital.   Ramos, 30, has one of the best slash lines of his career: .291/.341/.471.   

Houston has prospects to spare, but the Washington Nationals are also pursuing Ramos.  And the Boston Red Sox could be interested in upgrading the position.

At this point Boston reasonably can be called the team to beat in the AL, with MVP contender Mookie Betts and home run/RBI leader J.D. Martinez.  They’re likely to split the Triple Crown.  The Sawks have a starting rotation almost as deep as Houston’s, and they have a better closer, All-Star Craig Kimbrel, with 27 saves in 29 tries.

So the odds are against a repeat World Series winner even with the National League much less competitive than it was last year.

But there’s something to be said for the heart of a champion, as a Houston basketball icon, Rudy Tomjanovich, famously declared.  The Astros win 1-run games because they know how.  Giles aside, most of them are pressure-proof.   Marwin Gonzalez is in a season-long batting slump (.227), but he won Saturday’s game with a suicide squeeze bunt on an 0-2 count.

From what I see there’s no complacency in these champions.  There’s dedication to team that’s rare in all sports.  One of their five All-Stars, Alex Bregman, is learning Spanish to be a better teammate of the Venezuelans and Dominicans.   The Astros are drawing 36,000 per game in football country because they’re so united and so lovable.  This is a ballclub that’s fun to watch, fun to read about, fun to write about, talk about and text about.