Alan Truex: Dallas Keuchel no longer fooling hitters, but only himself

HOUSTON — Dallas Keuchel is an intimidating presence on the mound: 6-3 lefthander with facial hair even more prominent than the Houstonian known as The Beard, Rockets star James Harden.

Keuchel is as fierce a competitor as there is in baseball.  He’s unafraid to throw high and tight, and he won’t back down from batters, even ones as large as he is.

He won the American League Cy Young Award in 2015, when he was 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA.  A shoulder injury derailed him in 2016.  A neck injury limited him last year, but he still put together a 14-5 record with a 2.90 ERA.  He pitched well in the postseason, striking out 32 in 28 innings for the World Series champions.

But he’s been strangely ineffective this season, 3-8 with a 4.45 ERA, and he insists there are no physical issues.  His most recent start, Sunday in Arlington, was the worst, though his team still beat the Texas Rangers, 8-7.  He allowed 13 hits in 4 1/3 innings.

“They didn’t hit him tremendously hard,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said, “but they hit him a lot.”

After the game Keuchel was in denial mode.  “Balls find holes,” he said.   “Eleven of those hits should have been outs.”

In his previous start, a 7-1 loss in Seattle, he sounded equally befuddled.  He wondered if he was tipping his pitches or the Mariners were stealing signs from catcher Max Stassi.

But the truth is his pitches aren’t as sharp and are not as well located as they used to be.

And I recall an astute comment by a former Astros general manager, Bob Watson: “When a great pitcher loses just a little of his stuff, the batters jump all over him.”

Watson, who was an accomplished power hitter, was referring specifically to Doug Drabek, a Cy Young winner in 1990 who faded to 9-18, 3.79 in ‘93.

Drabek, a righty, bore similarity to Keuchel in that neither overpowered but relied on sinkers, breaking balls and control to frustrate batters.  More smoke and mirrors than actual smoke.

Watson suggested that when a slightly aging Drabek lost a couple of mph off his fastball, he also lost his mystique which had been a key element of his success.  Now the formerly demoralized batters gained confidence.  They treated him like he was just another pitcher.

Same thing is happening to Keuchel.  Although much was said during his Cy Young season about lack of velocity and extreme spin, his four-seam fastball reached 92 mph, above average for a lefty.

Now, however, he’s 30 years old, and he rarely, if ever, tops 90.  The intimidation factor is gone.  Perhaps forever.

His four-seamer is not the pitch the batters are clobbering, but they’re waiting on his slider and bashing it.  He’s allowed 20 first-inning hits, the most by any pitcher in the majors.

When he’s right, Keuchel is a ground ball machine.  In each of the past four seasons he induced grounders on more than 61% of his outs.  This year the percentage has fallen to 54.4.  The ball is hanging in the strike zone, and more of his pitches are getting pulled.  He’s yielding an average of 1.3 home runs in 9 innings.

So where does he go from here?

The Astros are hardly in a desperate situation.  They lead the major leagues in run differential, and they’re battling Seattle evenly for the lead in the AL West.   They’ve won eight consecutive games.  They have four superb starters in Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr., who have combined for a 32-7 record.

Hinch can afford to be patient with Keuchel, give him more time to work with a brilliant pitching coach, Brent Strom.

But the Astros are not playing for second place, and they do have other viable options for a fifth starter.  Brad Peacock started for most of last season and is pitching well out of the bullpen, with a 2.67 ERA in 26 appearances.  Collin McHugh, a former starter, has a 1.20 ERA in his 21 games this season.

Where the Astros do have desperate need is in the bullpen.  They have no  left-hander they can count on.  Keuchel could be considered for that role, but given his shakiness early, relief does not look promising.  Rumors persist they will trade for Baltimore’s Zach Britton, who will be a free agent at the end of the season.

Keuchel also is heading into free agency.  A new habitat – perhaps a different league – might be good for him and the Astros.