Alan Truex: Case lost? The quarterback Zimmer has, needs and doesn’t want
HOUSTON — Awaiting the baseball season, we can celebrate – or not – the courtship season in football. Several teams desperately searching for a quarterback, and Kirk Cousins is belle of the ball. In the realm of celebrities he’s Marilyn, Beonce, Oprah, LeBron.
He’s the trophy athlete who will give any team hope of a Lombardi, with the possible exceptions of those in Ohio. He had a TD-to-picks ratio of 81-36 and 66% completions with the Washington Redskins. Everyone knows he lacked blockers, receivers, runners, coaches. Recall safety D.J. Swearinger saying they weren’t “prepared” for Drew Brees being in a 2-minute offense.
Cousins carried a lousy team on his back through the swamp of Washington – not yet drained, of course. He has the potential to be a folk hero wherever he lands. You Like That? Be assured, some very rich folks will.
His value is boosted by lack of competition: an unusually sparse crop from the NCAA farm system. We see Josh Allen completing 56% at low-echelon Wyoming, Sam Darnold with an awkward windup and turnover tendencies. Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield are flaky and immature. Mayfield, who draws too many comparisons to Johnny Manziel, is barely 6 feet tall.
So there’s no question Cousins will continue being one of the largest earners in his profession. He’s money, franchise-tag money: $20 million in 2016 and $24 million for 2017. He played every week and held up like the Washington Monument. His market value has been assessed, fairly, I think, at a minimum $28 million, fully guaranteed for at least four years.
But while Cousins might be better for most teams, Case Keenum could be better for the Minnesota Vikings. At a bargain price.
Keenum is 30, same age as Cousins, and will accept perhaps half what Cousins demands if he can stay where he is. At 6-1, Keenum is two inches shorter and not as well armed. Except in intangibles.
Rich Gannon, former Super Bowl quarterback who’s as well connected as any NFL analyst, told the St. Paul Pioneer Press: “The players rally around him. He’s got some swagger . . . makes plays with his legs, throws the ball well on the move . . . The players believe in him.”
Those of us who saw Keenum play for the University of Houston and in a brief stint for the Texans have seen this story before. At UH he had average players around him and won at least 8 games a year, and he threw 48 TDs in one season and twice threw 44. He’s the NCAA’s all-time leader in passing – by a margin of 2,000 yards.
Wherever he plays, Keenum moves the ball and protects it. He looks into the eyes of everyone in the huddle, and they trust him. Even when 0-7 with a horrid Texans team in 2013, he threw more TDs than INTs, 9-6. In 2014 he won both his starts for the 9-7 Texans. In 2015 he won 4 of 5 starts for the wretched Rams. He kept Jared Goff on the bench for most of 2016.
You want big plays? Keenum connected with Stefon Diggs for the Minnesota Miracle that sent the Vikes into the NFC Championship Game, where he threw a touchdown to lead the Philadelphia Eagles 7-0. Then everything changed. He tossed a pick 6, and the game soon turned into a Philly rout.
Unfortunately for Keenum – or any quarterback – Mike Zimmer coaches from a defensive perspective. He’s one of the best on that side of the ball. Under his coaching, even the Cincinnati Bengals were disciplined.
The head coach of the Vikings believes defense wins championships. Offense is all about not screwing it up for the defense. To him, a pick-6 in a playoff game is unforgivable. Keenum’s probably won’t be.
Zimmer may not realize that Cousins is more of a gambler than Keenum. NBC’s Chris Collinsworth observed: “If a defensive coordinator played quarterback, he’d play it just about the way Case Keenum plays the game.”
Cousins is .500 as a starter and has three consecutive years of double-digit interceptions. He fumbled 13 times last season, Keenum just once.
It’s interesting that those who make decisions in Washington regard Cousins as very good but not “elite,” not “special.” Not like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Stafford, Ryan, Wilson and Wentz.
So Washington traded for Alex Smith, the sort of cautious quarterback Zimmer would love.
In 2016 Zimmer had a highly respected coordinator, Norv Turner, who quit in midseason. He was too polite to say why, but the grapevine had it that his vertical offense clashed with Zim’s plea for simple and safe.
Turner at 65 resurfaced in this offseason, as offensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers. He should thrive for a head coach known as “Riverboat Ron.”
Meanwhile, Zimmer is telling staff that Keenum is a backup who did what he was hired to do: fill in when Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford were injured. Zimmer saw too many risky throws by Keenum, even though they resulted in just seven interceptions, compared to 22 touchdowns.
So Zim, it has been well reported, will go a courting for Cousins, along with the Denver Broncos and New York Jets.
The Vikings could re-sign Keenum right now and leave funds to upgrade an O-line and nickel D that were exploited ruthlessly by the Eagles. Minnesota also needs a wide receiver opposite Diggs. Time to move on from first-round bust Laquon Treadwell.
Keenum is not the problem Zim thinks he is. In the past season Keenum ranked second to Carson Wentz and just ahead of Tom Brady in the modern metric that’s the most meaningful: QBR. Keenum was 7th in conventional passer rating, at 98.3. Here’s a Keenum metric I like: 11-3 as a starter.
With a salary cap firmly in place, it’s unwise to load too much cash onto one person. Detroit last August made Matt Stafford the highest-paid player in football (5 years, $135 million), slightly surpassing Derek Carr in Oakland. How close are those teams to the Super Bowl?
Case Keenum is better than some who won it: Trent Dilfer, Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, Brad Johnson, a winding-down Peyton Manning. On March 14-15 it will all be decided. Zimmer would do well to let Cousins go to the highest bidder and learn to love the one you’re with.