Alan Truex: Astros count on Verlander, but Cleveland is a better bet for World Series
HOUSTON — This is not a city accustomed to sporting excellence. Never a football team in the Super Bowl. Only once in 55 years of existence has its major-league baseball team reached the World Series. From which it was promptly swept.
But now we have the Astros set to open the playoffs at home against the Boston Red Sox while the Texans bask in their most one-sided victory ever, a 57-14 walloping of Tennessee, considered the main threat to their AFC South divisional crown.
Houston is, foremost, a football town, but a World Series championship could bring a change of heart. The Astros are a lovable team: young, dynamic, ebullient, and directed by perhaps the finest manager in baseball, A.J. Hinch.
The Astros have had their share of adversity. Their starting pitchers spent so much time on the disabled list that no one on the team surpassed 153 innings. Hinch was forced to start 11 pitchers this season.
In August, both his catchers, Brian McCann and Evan Gattis, were on the DL, along with All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa. August could have been disastrous, and nearly was. But Hinch held his team together with band-aids and verbal encouragement and survived the 11-17 month.
The arrival of Justin Verlander from Detroit on a waiver deal, minutes before the August 31 deadline, put the Astros back into contention for a world title. They rolled through September (20-8), thanks in no small part to Verlander going 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA.
One of the greatest pitchers of his generation, the 6-foot-5 righthander is 34 and none the worse for the wear. His high heater is still the most feared pitch in the game, hitting triple digits when he needs it.
Verlander will open the American League Division Series against Boston’s 300-strikeout ace, the 6-foot-6 Chris Sale, Thursday afternoon (3:08 CST, MLB Network) at Minute Maid. This will be power pitching at its best.
The Astros will follow Verlander with three other solid starters: Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA), Brad Peacock (13-2, 3.00) and 33-year-old journeyman Charlie Morton, having a career year at 14-7 and 3.62.
But the story with this team is the offense, best in baseball, averaging 5.5 runs per game.
The Astros think they have the league’s Most Valuable Player in the tiny (5-6) Jose Altuve, who had his fourth consecutive 200-hit season. He hit a career-high .346 to lead the majors, and he matched his best home-run mark at 24, while stealing 32 bases and playing acrobatically at second base.
Hinch set the stage for Altuve during lunch in January at the player’s home. The manager proposed a plan to keep Altuve fresh in September and October, where he has faded in the past.
“He’s always ready to play and always wants to play,” Hinch told the Houston Chronicle. “He doesn’t back down from pitching. He doesn’t back down from day games. He doesn’t ever not want to play. The consistency I’ve been able to watch is remarkable.”
But Hinch was able to convince Altuve that the team’s interests would be better served if he took a game or two off every month. Reluctantly, Altuve agreed to the idea, and the result is his best year ever, at 27.
As loaded as the Astros are, the Cleveland Indians are the favorites at Las Vegas books to win the World Series: 9/4, to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 5/2 and Houston’s 6/1. Boston is next a 9/1, with Washington and the defending-champion Chicago Cubs at 10/1.
I think Vegas has it about right, though I don’t see the Dodgers winning the World Series, given Clayton Kershaw’s constant postseason woes and doubts about the rest of the rotation.
The Indians, who were squeaked out of the world title last year, have the most dominating pitching in the sport and are almost as strong offensively as Houston. Cleveland stormed into the playoffs on a 35-4 streak and has a Big Three of Corey Kluber, 18-4, Carlos Carrasco, 18-6, and Trevor Bauer, 17-9.
True, there are doubts about the fourth starter. Danny Salazar is excellent when healthy but has been disabled twice this season. Still, he looked sharp in his most recent outing, when he pitched 4 2/3 innings against surprising Minnesota, struck out 9 and allowed just 1 hit.
Salazar may be short on stamina, but the Indians’ bullpen is implausibly deep with talent. Lefthanded relievers Andrew Miller and Tyler Olsen allowed a combined 10 earned runs in 83 innings in the regular season. Righties Cody Allen, Zach McAllister, Nick Goody and Dan Otero all appeared in at least 50 games, and all have ERA’s under 2.90.
Mike Clevinger is the swingman, going 12-6 as a reliever and spot starter. He’s rotation-worthy if Salazar or anyone else must step out.
Not that the Astros can afford to look ahead. It won’t be easy to get by Boston, which matches up well by throwing three lefties in the rotation: Sale, Drew Pomeranz and 24-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez.
Houston is 21-23 against lefthanded starters despite a righthanded-loaded lineup.
The Red Sox have another powerful weapon against Houston: lefty David Price, who failed as a much-touted starter but has found a new career at 32 by throwing bullets and blanks in middle relief. In his five games out of the ’pen he’s pitched 8 2/3 innings, allowed 3 hits and no runs while striking out 13.
Red Sox general manager Dave Dombrowski said, “The ideal scenario would be something like you’ve seen Andrew Miller do.”
Boston has other capable lefty relievers in Fernando Abad and Robby Scott, who together have allowed just 62 hits in 79 innings.
But the Sox can’t slug with Houston and are a study in inconsistency and disunity (with Price partly to blame). And they entered the postseason in something of a tailspin, losing 5 of their last 7 games. I have to think the Astros will get past them.
However, the World Series may be too much to ask, with Cleveland being too formidable and too experienced. The Astros and Texans are making progress, but they’re still at least a year away from being world champs.